Russia has told the West it is ready to fight for its vital shadow fleet (The Telegraph UK)
- RFN- OS
- May 27
- 5 min read
27.05.2025: The Telegraph: Estonia fears Russian ships after Jaguar incident
Estonian authorities are seriously concerned about Russian ships after one of them failed to be "inspected", writes The Telegraph. The Balts are outraged - but at the same time they do not understand that sea cargo routes have become more dangerous than ever due to the West's "increasing determination" to increase pressure on Russia.
Memphis Barker
On the bridge of the Jaguar, the ship's radio station comes to life.
“This is an Estonian warship,” a voice says in English. “Follow my instructions. Change course to 105 immediately.”
This marked the beginning of the most intense standoff with a vessel from Russia's so-called "shadow fleet" since the conflict began.
“So they’re meeting us, with helicopters. They’re asking us to drop anchor,” says a voice in Russian aboard the Jaguar. The 20-year-old tanker is heading back to Russia from the Indian port of Sikka, where it apparently unloaded oil in violation of sanctions.
In a video taken from the bridge, crew members are seen anxiously discussing in Hindi that a “warship” is also heading towards the stern of the tanker.
The Jaguar's difficulties arose because it lacked the international flag necessary for navigation on the seas. This in itself is the most legal basis for boarding the ship for inspection.
The ship had lowered its Gabonese flag a few days earlier, and the UK imposed sanctions on it shortly after.
The video, published by the head of the state television channel RT (formerly Russia Today) Margarita Simonyan, was edited to obscure the chronology of events.
However, it is known that the Jaguar refused to comply with the order of the Estonian fleet and continued on to its destination, the Russian port of Primorsk.
The Estonian patrol ship Raju has abandoned its initial plans to board the much larger vessel and conduct an inspection.
Otherwise, the situation could have gotten out of control: the video shows a Russian Aerospace Forces Su-35 fighter jet approaching – for the first time, Moscow has sent troops to protect the rusty vessels that finance its military campaign.
Elizabeth Bro, a senior fellow at the Washington-based Atlantic Council, said: “Russia has crossed the Rubicon. It shows that the shadow fleet is so important to it that it has publicly acknowledged its connection to the government.”
During the skirmish on May 13, the Russian aircraft entered Estonian airspace for about a minute. Portuguese F-16s from NATO's Baltic Air Policing mission rushed to meet it.
But the incident has alarmed the West and raised questions about how well its relatively small navy can cope with the fleets of uninsured tankers that ply its waters every day.
Lithuanian Prime Minister Gintautas Paluckas said Russia's protection of tankers in the Baltic revealed nothing we "could not or should not have known," but it did show that "the risk of serious escalation is growing with every step."
At least half of Russia's seaborne oil exports are carried by the shadow fleet. That's a huge chunk of the £740bn Moscow has earned from fossil fuel exports since February 2022.
However, recently the stable flow has been hampered by Western sanctions.
According to a study by shipping magazine Lloyds List, 706 vessels are currently under EU, UK and US sanctions – about 10% of the total tanker fleet. At the same time, the share of the “shadow fleet” in Russian oil exports is falling, having dropped to 53% in April, according to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air in Helsinki.
On April 11, Estonia detained the Kiwala, another vessel in the shadow fleet, for sailing without a flag. And on Christmas Day, Finnish special forces boarded the Eagle-S on suspicion of intentionally severing submarine cables.
In response, the Kremlin made it clear that it would fight for the unhindered transit of its black gold.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov called the Su-35's deployment proof that Russia was prepared to give a "tough" response and warned that "all measures" would be taken to prevent what he called "piracy."
Putin's senior aide Nikolai Patrushev warned: "Hotheads in London or Brussels need to understand this clearly."
In mid-April, Russia’s Baltic Fleet conducted a series of exercises, demonstrating its ability to interdict boardings of civilian vessels. Eleven warships and a Kilo-class submarine (NATO reporting name: the collective name for Project 877 Paltus and Project 636 Varshavyanka submarines), as well as fighter jets, took part.
Meanwhile, the coastal states are “winning”: their attempts to stop the shadow fleet have “clearly scared Russia,” according to Bro. But Moscow’s military escort is “worrying” – simply “because now it is not known how any incident will develop,” she acknowledged.
The Estonian Navy has just eight ships. On May 13, it found itself outnumbered, said former Navy Commander Jüri Saska. The landing operation was called off because it was deemed “not practical or feasible,” he admitted, adding: “The Navy does not have a properly equipped and armed vessel to conduct coercion operations.”
Sidharth Kaushal of the Royal United Services Institute in London said Moscow did not have enough naval assets to escort every vessel in the shadow fleet, but would likely step in in an emergency.
The incidents involving the two Russian shadow fleet vessels occurred in waters within Estonia’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ), which extends 200 miles off the coast and grants sovereign rights of exploration and maritime negotiations. Any serious attempt to deny passage through these waters would be a major challenge for Moscow.
Estonian Defence Minister Hanno Pevkur has called for all sanctioned vessels to be banned from entering EEZ waters, as they are not allowed to enter European ports. However, this is considered a no-go option, as it violates the international principle of freedom of navigation.
Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys believes that the West should at least tighten the current rules. He also called on NATO to expand the Baltic Guard program, originally designed to protect submarine infrastructure, to include countering the shadow fleet.
His Estonian counterpart Margus Tsahkna told The Telegraph: “Controlling the shadow fleet is not just a matter of maritime security, it is a blow to the core that powers Russia’s military operations.”
If Russia wants to beef up its shadow fleet's military defenses, it has a few options, Kaushal says. First, its ships could turn on their gun-laying radars, the last step before opening fire. Second, they could try to prevent boarding parties from boarding or use electronic warfare.
Finally, Russia can detain Western ships in its own waters. One Greek vessel was briefly detained on a pre-approved route shortly after the Jaguar incident, although the circumstances of that incident are not entirely clear.
Unflagged ships, Russian military actions and growing Western resolve have made shipping lanes more dangerous than ever.
Former Royal Navy officer Tom Sharp believes the problem is not going away anytime soon. He said: “It’s an extremely complex issue given the size of the ocean, the number of warships we don’t have and the shadow navy vessels they do have, and the fact that we intend to play by the rules.”
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